As goes January, so goes the year?
Since 1950, there have been only five times when January got it wrong in a big way. That gives it an accuracy ratio of 91.4 percent. Throw in the 10 years since then when the market hasn't moved much in a year, and January is still accurate 74.1 percent of the time, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
During January 2009, the NYSE was down -9.75% while the NASDAQ dropped -6.38%.
Whether the January Barometer holds up this year will depend on the impact of government efforts to help lift the economy. If stimulus plans and capital infusions for banks do revive the economy, the stock market is expected to rally and could end the year with an advance.
However, when the January Barometer has been wrong it's often because of major events. For example in 2001, the markets rose in January, but the index ended the year down because of the September 11th terrorist attacks. And in 2003, stocks fell once again in January as investors grew nervous ahead of the U.S. led invasion of Iraq, but investors set aside their jitters and stocks rallied to a huge gain for the year.
During a volitile week to end the month of January, the NYSE ended flat at 0.00% while the NASDAQ slighted -.06%.
Since 6/6/08, when the NLX NYSE turned Bearish, the NYSE has sank -43.23%.
Since 1/14/08, when the NLX NASDAQ turned Bearish, the NASDAQ has gained .89%.
The NLX will identify an underlying trend change by simply turning to +100:
NLX NYSE -42
NLX NASDAQ -119
These reports express our opinions and suggestions, provided only as a supplement to your own further research and decisions. We take care to assure accuracy of contents, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance does not imply future results.
Post your comments or email anytime: nlx(no spam)marketcommentary.com
During January 2009, the NYSE was down -9.75% while the NASDAQ dropped -6.38%.
Whether the January Barometer holds up this year will depend on the impact of government efforts to help lift the economy. If stimulus plans and capital infusions for banks do revive the economy, the stock market is expected to rally and could end the year with an advance.
However, when the January Barometer has been wrong it's often because of major events. For example in 2001, the markets rose in January, but the index ended the year down because of the September 11th terrorist attacks. And in 2003, stocks fell once again in January as investors grew nervous ahead of the U.S. led invasion of Iraq, but investors set aside their jitters and stocks rallied to a huge gain for the year.
During a volitile week to end the month of January, the NYSE ended flat at 0.00% while the NASDAQ slighted -.06%.
Since 6/6/08, when the NLX NYSE turned Bearish, the NYSE has sank -43.23%.
Since 1/14/08, when the NLX NASDAQ turned Bearish, the NASDAQ has gained .89%.
The NLX will identify an underlying trend change by simply turning to +100:
NLX NYSE -42
NLX NASDAQ -119
These reports express our opinions and suggestions, provided only as a supplement to your own further research and decisions. We take care to assure accuracy of contents, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance does not imply future results.
Post your comments or email anytime: nlx(no spam)marketcommentary.com
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